Category: politics

Just some more idle speculation. If the Republican party goes down in a crushing defeat, will divisions within the party finally lead to a split resulting in the formation of a viable third party? It’s no secret that the blame game has already begun between moderate Republicans and the far right religio-conservative wing of the party. But does the leadership and vision exist to create a complete split?

Some have argued that the current two party system is too limiting for the kind of dynamic government that the U.S. needs in the 21st century. A major 3rd party could be just the lubrication needed to keep us moving forward. I for one would like to see moderate Republicans who believe in classic Republican values of limited government and personal freedom, freed of the religious and rightist elements that have highjacked the Republican party. In the past, John McCain would have been the most likely to lead this revolt, but if he does go down in a crushing defeat, it is unlikely that he could lead the split. It seems far more likely that the religious conservative faction will split off on their own with people like Huckabee and Palin leading the way. If that happens, perhaps the moderates will join up with the Libertarians.

With speculation mounting that Obama may win in a Democratic party landslide, I wonder if we may actually see what I’ll call the “Don’t Back No Losers Effect”. This is when people decide that they would rather throw their support behind whoever looks like they will win. No one likes to be on the losing side, and with the McCain campaign reputed to be in disarray, they are looking more and more like the kind of losers that anyone still on the fence is not likely to find very attractive.

I’ve long worried that the polls showing Obama to be ahead were inflated due to the Bradley Effect, but Frank Rich’s Op-Ed piece in the NY Times, In Defense of White People, has made me rethink that. Perhaps things really have changed. In a few days, we’ll have an answer to that question.

A few days ago I voted early and cast my vote for Barack Obama! I’m going to be on the road for Youmacon next weekend, so I wanted to be sure that nothing, like car failure, kept me from getting back to cast my vote. Early voting was pretty easy, I was in line for maybe 15 minutes at the board of elections. And being able to plan when to vote on my own schedule was nice too.

In other news, another former Bushie supports Obama! So get out there and vote Obama, everyone’s doin it!^__^

I’m watching the final Obama McCain debate, well sort of half watching, and one thing that is painfully obvious is that McCain’s tank is empty. For the most part, McCain is basically ignoring what Obama is saying to get in his digs. Admittedly, both of them are taking their opportunities to get in some campaign boilerplate, but Obama is a lot better at it. More importantly though, Obama has much more detailed plans, versus McCain’s collection of disjointed buzz words.

If McCain is hoping to shake Obama up and land some body blows, so far he is failing mightily. So I just wonder now, will the United States actually choose the man who appears to be so much superior to the other, or will we stumble over the twin specters of racism and stupidity.

I made my mind up to support Barrack Obama for President of the United States a long time ago. So I really haven’t been paying all that much attention to the debates. But last night my dad came by, so we watched the Obama – McCain town hall meeting last night.

Needless to say, I’m still supporting Obama, but the thing that really surprised me was just how very very old McCain looked. I knew he was old, but wasn’t really prepared for the shock of seeing this on TV. He looked old, sounded old, and moved like a really old man. Not that being old is bad, in and of itself, but I really don’t think the town hall meeting format is doing him any favors now.

In a traditional debate, the candidates pretty much stay behind the podium and the viewer focuses on what they are saying and perhaps facial expressions. But in the town hall format, there’s no where to hide, body language is on full display. McCain’s body was just screaming, look at how old I am!

To some, it may be unthinkable, but an Obama-Clinton ticket is beginning to look like the only way for the Democrats to assure themselves of victory in the fall over McCain. The bottom line seems to be that Barrack Obama is not going to win over the voters who have supported Clinton but will not support him because he’s black. I’ve read much about how Obama needs a message to that resonates with the blue collar voter or the older voter. Well, pardon my French, but those are just euphemisms for white voters who aren’t going to support a black man no matter how smart, well spoken, or capable he is. Unless Obama’s new message involves him becoming a white man and simultaneously erasing any memory of his ever being black from the minds of voters, he will not pick up this support. That is unless he takes on Hillary Clinton as his running mate.

With Clinton as his running mate, he will have her onboard 100% to make a strong pitch to the people who supported her to support them both in the general election. Some of these people will still defect, but I’m guessing that most will not. I don’t know if Obama and Clinton like each other much personally at all. But if they want the White House back, they’d better work together. Clinton supporters aren’t going to buy it if she isn’t on the ticket.

I suppose it should have been expected, but it seems that the swift boating of Barrack Obama has begun in earnest. Just as more public musings about why Obama has been unable to “close the deal” on the nomination began to turn to the question of race, this whole meaningless Reverend Wright controversy has been resurrected. The simple fact is that there are a significant portion of voters who will not vote for Obama simply because he is black. But even racists don’t want to be known as racists, so they lie to the pollsters. The fact that they lie underscores the fact that they feel that their viewpoint is wrong. Wrong or not, though, they refuse to change.

Now they can proudly not vote for Obama for the Wright reason. They can self righteously claim that Wright’s views are extremist and that Obama’s association with Wright, regardless of what Obama says about it, makes him an unsuitable choice for President of the United States. Their consciences can now rest easy thanks to a media that lives and profits on controversy, a political power structure that got scared that a black man might actually win and change things, and an American public that has yet to deal with still existent racism.

For the record, I heard what Wright said. I like him, and he speaks truth to power, and of course, the power doesn’t like it. I’m still voting Obama if he gets the nomination. And if Wright were running, I’d vote for him too.

The Olympic torch was extinguished several times due to protests as the torch relay passed through Paris. While I’m sure that many share the view that mixing up sports and politics is a bad thing, I think that this just is just more proof that everything involving human beings and their relationships IS politics. There’s no escaping the fact that many around the world believe that the Chinese government’s record on human rights is bad and that China should have a more open government, hence the protests. At the same time, the Olympic games is going to bring prestige to the Chinese no matter what happens, which includes political gain for the government as well. It works both ways. No matter whether it is science, art, or sports, all is politics.

Even with Chicago area gasoline prices approaching $4/gal, with crude oil prices topping $100/barrel why isn’t gasoline more expensive yet? In the past, the oil companies have never hesitated to raise gasoline prices for any and all reasons. Why so shy now? Do I have Dick Cheney to thank once again for this restraint? During the Bush W years, he and Cheney’s big oil pals have done very well indeed, so I’m sure they owe them big time. If gasoline prices shot up to $6 or $7 per gallon in a short period of time before an election, that would cause a great deal of political trouble. Sadly it seems that Americans are more concerned about the price of gasoline than thousands dead in an unending war in Iraq.

With that in mind, gas prices might be used as a barometer of big oil’s confidence in John McCain. If they are confident that he can win the White House in November, then gasoline prices will not rise sharply during the upcoming summer driving season. Perhaps they will stay under $5/gal. If they think there’s no way in hell McCain can win, then bar the door and hello $6/gal gasoline! They’ve shown a lot of restraint over the last three years during which time the price of crude oil has doubled, but once they decide that government control is likely to go over to the oil industry hostile Democrats, they’ll grab all the cash they can before the party’s over.

Yesterday I was thinking about the 4000 plus soldiers the United States has lost during the last 5 years of war in Iraq. I thought, wow, that’s 4000 good soldiers whose services have been lost. Have they been wasted? It certainly seems that way to me. Almost 4 years ago, I wondered here if it were time for the US to adopt a Star Trek style Prime Directive. After 4000 dead soldiers and many times more Iraqi civilians, a non interference amendment to the US Constitution seems like an even better idea.

The rest of the world doesn’t want the United States telling them what kind of government they should have and forcibly removing governments we don’t like. We are not wanted in Iraq by either the Sunni’s or the Shiites, or the Kurds for that matter. To stay now, we are only delaying the inevitable civil war and partitioning of Iraq. I still think, free and open societies are the way to go, but each culture has to decide the when and how of that on their own. That can be very messy, but I suspect far fewer lives will be lost than when outsiders try to impose their will. I hope Iraq will stand as a lesson for the limits of interference in the affairs of others for a long time. Sadly, I think Vietnam was supposed to do that too…